Russia’s War on Ukraine: Analyzing the Situation in the Fall Of 2026

Abstract

Following the media on the war front can be confusing. Reports change rapidly from one of Ukraine’s imminent defeat to descriptions of a decisive change that will lead to the collapse of the Russian army and perhaps the end of the Putin regime after over a quarter of a century. By October 2026, the picture had changed again, with Donald J. Trump’s decision to lift Russian sanctions, import Russian diesel oil, and discuss a solution to the war in partnership with Russia and possibly China. The situation is increasingly tense and complex, and the fall has seen extensive Russian attacks on its cities, particularly Kyiv, and the protracted war in the Donbas is now entering its fourteenth year.